Global population aging
is an inevitable feature of the final stages of the demographic transition,
a worldwide combination of low fertility and low mortality that result in older,
more slowly growing (or even shrinking) populations. This trend raises two concurrent
concerns: the risk of rising "dependency ratios" of the elderly on
the working-age population, and falling global saving rates as the growing retired
population begins to dissave after a lifetime of working.
These are genuine concerns,
but there are also factors that will ameliorate them. Although the burden of
the dependency ratio will fall on public programs such as pensions and health
care, it will occur in such a gradual fashion that resources can be effectively
redirected over time. Moreover, the smaller labor force in an aged society can
be more productive with a small pool of capital as resources per worker increase.
Global Population Aging and Its Economic Consequences explains how the risks
of global aging can be contained with a combination of foresight and prudent
public policy. It also considers how these trends will affect the developing
countries that have too often been neglected in discussions of global aging.
Ronald D. Lee is the Edward
G. and Nancy S. Jordan Family Professor of Economics and professor of demography
at the University of California, Berkeley, and director of the Center on Economics
and Demography of Aging. Lee is also a research associate of the National Bureau
of Economic Research.
The Henry Wendt
Lecture Series
Global Population Aging
and Its Economic Consequences was the 2005 Henry Wendt Lecture, delivered at
the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C. on September 28, 2005.
The Wendt Lecture is delivered annually by a scholar who has made major contributions
to our understanding of the modern phenomenon of globalization and its consequences
for social welfare, government policy, and the expansion of liberal political
institutions.
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