JUST FOR A MOMENT, let’s optimistically assume that Japan is able to avoid a depression or a financial crisis. It then will have to face a population crunch. Somewhere around 2006, Japan’s population will peak and begin to decline. By the year 2050, according to the latest Japanese government estimates, one-third of the population will be above retirement age, and the overall population will have dropped by 27 million people. The social and economic implications are enormous. This looming demographic crunch has long been on the horizon. But now the negative effects of Japan’s population crunch are beginning to emerge. Until recently, baby boomer households in Japan have supported consumption. Between 1980 and 2000, those born between 1941 and 1955 formed 7 million standard, nuclear households that spent an average of [yen] 4 million per year on consumption and collectively accounted for [yen] 28 trillion a year in personal consumption. In 1970, there were 2.34 million households headed by those aged between 35-39. But by the year 2000, this had decreased to 1.85 million. The dramatic implications of demographic change are even affecting the behavior of young Japanese. They are increasingly boycotting their obligatory national pension payments. They
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