Increased life expectancy and reduced fertility rates in Europe create a tension between social welfare systems and the labour market. According to the Commission’s European Employment Observatory (spring 2003), the 16-29 years age group will decline by 13 million people between 1995 and 2015 in the 15 Member States of the European Union (estimated for the EU before the enlargement to 25 Member States on 1 May 2004). At the same time, the number of 50-64 year olds will increase by 16 million. This is a vital issue for the future. The EU has set the objective of raising the employment rate of older people. In March 2001, the European Council of Stockholm aimed at a rate of 50% employment for workers aged 55 to 64 by 2010. (It also sets the objective of reaching an employment rate in the EU of 70% for the whole population of working age, and of 60% for women.) The Barcelona European Council in March 2002 agreed on the target of gradually increasing the average retirement age by five years over the same period. National social models Using the classifications drawn up by Delteil and Redor (2003), three types of country can be identified,
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