Why is Scotland’s population shrinking and ageing?

Scotland’s population is changing and this poses critical challenges for policymakers. The key demographic trend is that Scotland’s population is shrinking and ageing. Existing evidence ( see notes to editors, 1 ) suggests that: — If current trends continue, Scotland’s population will fall below 5 million in 2017 and reach 4.6 million by 2042. This means, in percentage terms, the population will be about 10 per cent smaller in 2042 than at present. — Scotland’s population is not only ageing but is expected to age rapidly over the next few decades. The number of people aged 65 and older is expected to rise by about 61 per cent from 819,000 in 2003 to 1.3 million by 2042. The number aged under 15 is expected to fall by about 30 per cent from 943,000 in 2003 to 677,000 by 2042. — The number of babies born each year in Scotland has fallen substantially over the last 40 years. Just 51,270 births were registered in Scotland in 2002, the lowest figure since civil registration began in 1855: 24 per cent less than in 1991 and 43 per cent less than in 1951. Although the number of babies born in the last two